Closing spread
IND -10.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:13 | 5 | 45 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 6:20 | 9 | 53 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 0:54 | 11 | 88 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| IND | Q2 8:38 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 5:10 | 7 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| IND | Q2 1:46 | 7 | 41 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| IND | Q3 11:33 | 8 | 59 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q3 7:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–10 |
| IND | Q3 5:55 | 6 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| LAC | Q3 2:53 | 5 | 84 | Touchdown | 21–17 |
| IND | Q4 15:00 | 6 | 6 | Punt | 21–17 |
| LAC | Q4 12:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–17 |
| IND | Q4 10:50 | 3 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LAC | Q4 10:07 | 9 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–24 |
| IND | Q4 4:50 | 11 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 28–24 |
| LAC | Q4 2:01 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–24 |
| IND | Q4 1:30 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 28–24 |
| LAC | Q4 0:58 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 33/48 | 402 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kenton Keith | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.