Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
48
Model margin
+1.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.052
- 47.3%Success rate45.0%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.144
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.140
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.6%
- +0.84CPOE+5.02
- 43.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 2.09Points / drive2.12
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 9–8 since 1999
Meetings average 40.8 points. ARI are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 26/33 | 240 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 20 | 69 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Domenik Hixon | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 32/52 | 351 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 21 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.25