Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.003
- 47.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.75CPOE-2.44
- 40.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.85Points / drive1.83
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/32 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 2 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/39 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.70