Closing spread
TEN -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.003
- 47.0%Success rate41.7%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.037
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.044
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.75CPOE-2.44
- 40.6%Third-down rate36.7%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.85Points / drive1.83
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYJ lead 9–4 since 1999
NYJ have won 3 straight. Meetings average 38.2 points. TEN are 2-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:29 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:54 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:09 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:38 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 3:11 | 7 | 30 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q2 15:00 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 13:23 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| TEN | Q2 12:30 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q2 11:29 | 13 | 76 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| TEN | Q2 3:59 | 12 | 33 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:51 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 10–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 53 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| TEN | Q3 8:06 | 1 | 11 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:50 | 8 | 35 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| TEN | Q3 3:02 | 12 | 52 | Field goal | 20–6 |
| NYJ | Q4 12:50 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–6 |
| TEN | Q4 11:07 | 4 | 66 | Touchdown | 27–13 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:43 | 14 | 45 | Touchdown | 34–13 |
| TEN | Q4 2:09 | 6 | 64 | End of half | 34–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 25/32 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 27 | 96 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 8 | 82 | 10.3 | 2 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 21/39 | 243 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.70