Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 12:54 | 13 | 67 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:13 | 7 | 41 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 2:00 | 8 | 46 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:44 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q2 8:01 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 2:58 | 3 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:46 | 3 | 9 | Opp touchdown | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:06 | 5 | 24 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:18 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DEN | Q3 5:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LV | Q3 4:27 | 11 | 50 | Touchdown | 24–10 |
| DEN | Q4 14:08 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 24–10 |
| LV | Q4 13:34 | 7 | 43 | Touchdown | 31–10 |
| DEN | Q4 9:42 | 10 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 31–10 |
| LV | Q4 6:47 | 8 | 39 | End of half | 31–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/37 | 204 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.76
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.