Closing spread
DAL -9.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.018
- 43.6%Success rate41.9%
- -0.002EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.015
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.2%
- +1.59CPOE+3.06
- 37.4%Third-down rate43.2%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.64Points / drive1.67
- 3.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
SF have won 4 straight. Meetings average 52.2 points. DAL are 6-7-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 37 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:40 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 7:53 | 9 | 70 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 2:39 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 1:18 | 4 | 47 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| DAL | Q2 15:00 | 3 | 77 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 13:54 | 3 | -11 | Safety | 6–9 |
| DAL | Q2 12:02 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 6–9 |
| SF | Q2 10:28 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–9 |
| DAL | Q2 8:20 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 6–12 |
| SF | Q2 7:23 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–12 |
| DAL | Q2 5:45 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 6–15 |
| SF | Q2 3:02 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–15 |
| DAL | Q2 2:52 | 5 | 19 | Touchdown | 6–22 |
| SF | Q2 0:52 | 2 | 9 | End of half | 6–22 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 6–29 |
| SF | Q3 12:04 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 9–29 |
| DAL | Q3 8:23 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 9–29 |
| SF | Q3 6:01 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 9–29 |
| DAL | Q3 5:53 | 11 | 56 | Field goal | 9–32 |
| SF | Q4 14:49 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 9–32 |
| DAL | Q4 13:40 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 9–32 |
| SF | Q4 9:47 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 16–32 |
| DAL | Q4 8:20 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 16–35 |
| SF | Q4 5:06 | 4 | 57 | Touchdown | 22–35 |
| DAL | Q4 3:46 | 6 | 36 | End of half | 22–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 21/33 | 303 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/39 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Barber | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tashard Choice | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.20