2008 · Week 12
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -9
Total
42
Model margin
-5.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.162
- 43.2%Success rate36.3%
- +0.028EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.092
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.84CPOE-3.61
- 38.9%Third-down rate28.7%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.55Points / drive1.21
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 13/18 | 165 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 14 | 90 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 16 | 27 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 8/20 | 121 | 1 | 2 |
| Drew Stanton | 2/6 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 16 | 86 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.8%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.90
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.42