2008 · Week 12
Final
Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
40
Model margin
-1.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play-0.057
- 42.3%Success rate37.8%
- +0.004EPA / dropback-0.022
- -0.080EPA / rush-0.103
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.49CPOE-5.09
- 36.0%Third-down rate31.4%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
- 1.37Points / drive1.56
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. SEA are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:20 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:30 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:39 | 4 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 7:19 | 8 | 53 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 3:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q1 0:52 | 10 | 36 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q2 11:51 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 10:14 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| SEA | Q2 4:32 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q2 0:29 | 4 | 13 | End of half | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| WAS | Q3 12:57 | 10 | 49 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 7:21 | 5 | 12 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| WAS | Q3 5:12 | 4 | 30 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| SEA | Q3 3:25 | 10 | 62 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| WAS | Q4 13:24 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| SEA | Q4 9:19 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 20–17 |
| WAS | Q4 7:05 | 11 | 74 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| SEA | Q4 1:28 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–17 |
| WAS | Q4 1:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 20/33 | 206 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 29 | 143 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 12/24 | 103 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 14 | 103 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.47