2008 · Week 12

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Jason Campbell

20·17

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

40

Model margin

-1.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.032EPA / play-0.057
  • 42.3%Success rate37.8%
  • +0.004EPA / dropback-0.022
  • -0.080EPA / rush-0.103
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.49CPOE-5.09
  • 36.0%Third-down rate31.4%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate54.9%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.56
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jason Campbell20/3320610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis291434.90
Jason Campbell6325.30
Ladell Betts571.41
Mike Sellers155.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck12/2410322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris141037.40
Julius Jones22110.50
Matt Hasselbeck2115.50
T.J. Duckett144.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.47