2008 · Week 13

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

20·48

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Donovan McNabb

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapEagles
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.0%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.144EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.055
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.02CPOE-1.08
  • 43.3%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.73
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ARI lead 11–8 since 1999

Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W17ARI @ PHI35–31ARI
2022 · W5PHI @ ARI20–17PHI
2020 · W15PHI @ ARI26–33ARI
2017 · W5ARI @ PHI7–34PHI
2015 · W15ARI @ PHI40–17ARI
2014 · W8PHI @ ARI20–24ARI
2013 · W13ARI @ PHI21–24PHI
2012 · W3PHI @ ARI6–27ARI

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner21/3923533

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Arrington2105.00
Anquan Boldin188.00
Tim Hightower771.00

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb27/3926040

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brian Westbrook221105.02
Kyle Eckel6274.50
Donovan McNabb4246.00
Lorenzo Booker4215.30
DeSean Jackson166.00
Kevin Kolb3-3-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.4%

Expected total

42.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.79