Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play+0.004
- 45.0%Success rate43.8%
- +0.144EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.055
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.02CPOE-1.08
- 43.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate50.9%
- 2.12Points / drive1.73
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ARI lead 11–8 since 1999
Meetings average 46.9 points. PHI are 8-11 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 7:56 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 5:03 | 4 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 3:27 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q1 2:27 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 1:09 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 14:13 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| ARI | Q2 8:24 | 13 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| PHI | Q2 2:58 | 12 | 53 | Field goal | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–24 |
| PHI | Q3 13:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–24 |
| ARI | Q3 12:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–24 |
| PHI | Q3 11:43 | 11 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| ARI | Q3 6:17 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–31 |
| ARI | Q3 4:38 | 5 | 35 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| PHI | Q3 3:21 | 5 | 54 | Field goal | 13–34 |
| ARI | Q3 0:23 | 5 | 74 | Touchdown | 20–34 |
| PHI | Q4 14:15 | 3 | 15 | Punt | 20–34 |
| ARI | Q4 12:45 | 1 | 9 | Turnover | 20–34 |
| PHI | Q4 12:23 | 5 | 19 | Touchdown | 20–41 |
| ARI | Q4 10:27 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 20–41 |
| PHI | Q4 9:11 | 7 | 36 | Touchdown | 20–48 |
| ARI | Q4 5:19 | 4 | 9 | Turnover | 20–48 |
| PHI | Q4 4:15 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 20–48 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 21/39 | 235 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 27/39 | 260 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Kyle Eckel | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.79