Closing spread
BAL -7
Total
35.5
Model margin
-0.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.172
- 40.6%Success rate38.0%
- -0.007EPA / dropback-0.150
- -0.027EPA / rush-0.208
- 7.9%Explosive rate5.1%
- -0.33CPOE-3.29
- 41.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 50.4%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
- 1.61Points / drive0.93
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. CIN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 19/29 | 280 | 2 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1/1 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 11 | 41 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Troy Smith | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 12/31 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 |
| Cedric Benson | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.2%
Expected total
39.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.70