2008 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

34·3

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

BAL -7

Total

35.5

Model margin

-0.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

4.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBengals
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.172
  • 40.6%Success rate38.0%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback-0.150
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.208
  • 7.9%Explosive rate5.1%
  • -0.33CPOE-3.29
  • 41.3%Third-down rate35.3%
  • 50.4%Red-zone TD rate45.7%
  • 1.61Points / drive0.93
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 30–26 since 1999

Meetings average 43.1 points. CIN are 29-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7CIN @ BAL35–13CIN
2025 · W15BAL @ CIN24–0BAL
2025 · W13CIN @ BAL32–14CIN
2024 · W10CIN @ BAL34–35BAL
2024 · W5BAL @ CIN41–38BAL
2023 · W11CIN @ BAL20–34BAL
2023 · W2BAL @ CIN27–24BAL
2022 · playoffsBAL @ CIN17–24CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CIN
CINQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:31823Punt0–0
CINQ1 9:4332Punt0–0
BALQ1 8:45656Field goal3–0
CINQ1 6:063-6Punt3–0
BALQ1 4:341255Field goal6–0
CINQ2 12:5237Punt6–0
BALQ2 11:1239Punt6–0
CINQ2 9:2437Punt6–0
BALQ2 7:54980Touchdown13–0
CINQ2 3:063-9Punt13–0
BALQ2 2:11525Punt13–0
CINQ2 1:11689Field goal13–3
BALQ3 15:00520Punt13–3
CINQ3 12:1137Punt13–3
BALQ3 10:35549Touchdown20–3
CINQ3 8:1234Punt20–3
BALQ3 6:36273Touchdown27–3
CINQ3 5:533-7Punt27–3
BALQ3 4:401248Punt27–3
CINQ4 14:16612Punt27–3
BALQ4 12:1435Punt27–3
CINQ4 10:01623Punt27–3
BALQ4 6:54511Punt27–3
CINQ4 3:2027Opp touchdown34–3
CINQ4 2:2840Turnover on downs34–3
BALQ4 1:0700End of half34–3

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco19/2928020
Mark Clayton1/13210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice11413.70
Joe Flacco3155.00
Troy Smith341.30

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick12/3112400
Jordan Palmer0/2001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Fitzpatrick3299.70
Cedric Benson10171.70
Chris Perry3113.70

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.2%

Expected total

39.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.43
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.70