Closing spread
GB -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.051
- 42.5%Success rate43.8%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.134
- +0.059EPA / rush-0.072
- 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.27CPOE+4.24
- 40.0%Third-down rate44.1%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.98Points / drive1.94
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 10–7 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. GB are 6-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 44 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 14:41 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:33 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 10:58 | 6 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 8:33 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 7–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:45 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–0 |
| GB | Q1 3:03 | 9 | 51 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| CAR | Q2 12:45 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| GB | Q2 9:43 | 12 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q2 3:15 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–10 |
| GB | Q2 2:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q2 2:29 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| GB | Q2 0:34 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 21–10 |
| CAR | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 21–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 32 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| CAR | Q3 13:57 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 21–13 |
| GB | Q3 9:30 | 8 | 100 | Touchdown | 21–21 |
| CAR | Q3 5:17 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 21–21 |
| GB | Q3 3:02 | 9 | 76 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| CAR | Q4 13:43 | 5 | 36 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| GB | Q4 11:10 | 15 | 77 | Field goal | 28–31 |
| CAR | Q4 1:57 | 2 | 55 | Touchdown | 35–31 |
| GB | Q4 1:30 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 35–31 |
| CAR | Q4 1:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 35–31 |
| GB | Q4 0:02 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 35–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/17 | 177 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 21 | 72 | 3.4 | 4 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 58 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 29/45 | 298 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 11 | 80 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.39