2008 · Week 13

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

35·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

41

Model margin

+3.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapPackers
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.051
  • 42.5%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.073EPA / dropback+0.134
  • +0.059EPA / rush-0.072
  • 11.3%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -1.27CPOE+4.24
  • 40.0%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
  • 1.98Points / drive1.94
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 49.3 points. GB are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9CAR @ GB16–13CAR
2023 · W16GB @ CAR33–30GB
2020 · W15CAR @ GB16–24GB
2019 · W10CAR @ GB16–24GB
2017 · W15GB @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W9GB @ CAR29–37CAR
2014 · W7CAR @ GB17–38GB
2011 · W2GB @ CAR30–23GB

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme12/1717700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams21723.44
Jonathan Stewart45814.50
Jake Delhomme200.01

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers29/4529831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson11807.30
Ryan Grant12393.30
Aaron Rodgers5265.20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.39