Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play-0.039
- 39.3%Success rate40.9%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -3.00CPOE-2.18
- 35.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 1.70Points / drive1.59
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 11/29 | 153 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jason Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Garrett Wolfe | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 16/25 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 28 | 131 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.36