Closing spread
NYJ -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play+0.038
- 49.2%Success rate47.0%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.048
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.41CPOE+3.75
- 48.2%Third-down rate40.6%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.01Points / drive1.85
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 13:52 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 11:46 | 5 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:41 | 1 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| DEN | Q1 8:21 | 4 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:44 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q1 5:20 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 1:44 | 7 | 76 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| DEN | Q2 12:44 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 17–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 9:11 | 3 | 12 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| DEN | Q2 7:48 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 24–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:29 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 24–14 |
| DEN | Q2 3:18 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 27–14 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–14 |
| DEN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 27–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 12:44 | 6 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 27–14 |
| DEN | Q3 10:27 | 7 | 46 | Turnover | 27–14 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:03 | 9 | 68 | Field goal | 27–17 |
| DEN | Q3 2:50 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 27–17 |
| NYJ | Q3 1:15 | 9 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 27–17 |
| DEN | Q4 12:10 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 34–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 34–17 |
| DEN | Q4 8:30 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 34–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 6:43 | 14 | 62 | Turnover on downs | 34–17 |
| DEN | Q4 2:43 | 2 | 11 | End of half | 34–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/43 | 357 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 22 | 129 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/43 | 247 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 138 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.52