Closing spread
NYJ -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.5est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.101EPA / play+0.038
- 49.2%Success rate47.0%
- +0.157EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.007EPA / rush+0.048
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- +1.41CPOE+3.75
- 48.2%Third-down rate40.6%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.01Points / drive1.85
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 27/43 | 357 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 22 | 129 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/43 | 247 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 16 | 138 | 8.6 | 2 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.52