Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.037
- 44.6%Success rate45.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.08CPOE+3.93
- 41.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 32–16 since 1999
Meetings average 41.9 points. HOU are 27-20-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 25/35 | 287 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 67 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 14/24 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41