Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.037
- 44.6%Success rate45.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.012
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- +3.08CPOE+3.93
- 41.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.65Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 11:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 9:56 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 9:39 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 9:32 | 6 | 28 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q1 6:29 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q1 3:59 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q1 1:44 | 11 | 79 | Missed field goal | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 9:56 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 6:27 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q2 3:02 | 9 | 53 | Turnover on downs | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:33 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–10 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 0–10 |
| HOU | Q3 12:06 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| JAX | Q3 10:12 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| HOU | Q3 3:29 | 4 | 45 | Field goal | 3–16 |
| JAX | Q3 0:46 | 9 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 3–16 |
| HOU | Q4 12:14 | 10 | 54 | Punt | 3–16 |
| JAX | Q4 5:22 | 2 | -2 | Turnover | 3–22 |
| HOU | Q4 4:39 | 1 | 7 | Touchdown | 3–23 |
| JAX | Q4 4:35 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| HOU | Q4 2:11 | 1 | 40 | Touchdown | 10–30 |
| JAX | Q4 2:04 | 6 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–30 |
| HOU | Q4 0:39 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–30 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 25/35 | 287 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 67 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 14/24 | 200 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 21 | 130 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Moats | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.39
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.41