Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 15/22 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.