Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
41
Model margin
+3.7est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:15 | 8 | 58 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 7:52 | 10 | 65 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:07 | 10 | 48 | Opp touchdown | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:57 | 12 | 69 | Turnover on downs | 10–3 |
| KC | Q2 5:05 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:14 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–3 |
| KC | Q2 2:29 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 9 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 24 | Punt | 10–3 |
| KC | Q3 11:59 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 10–9 |
| LV | Q3 11:16 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| KC | Q3 11:13 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 9:08 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–10 |
| KC | Q3 8:07 | 16 | 98 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| LV | Q4 13:43 | 1 | 7 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| KC | Q4 13:29 | 6 | 35 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| LV | Q4 8:54 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 20–10 |
| KC | Q4 7:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–10 |
| LV | Q4 5:22 | 10 | 51 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| KC | Q4 2:55 | 4 | 34 | End of half | 20–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 15/22 | 162 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 24 | 92 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.73
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.