2008 · Week 13 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 30mph
Closing spread
TB -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play-0.033
- 48.7%Success rate43.2%
- +0.213EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.5%
- +2.69CPOE+1.84
- 49.2%Third-down rate38.9%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.42Points / drive1.55
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. TB are 24-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 25/47 | 296 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 9/23 | 119 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 22 | 74 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 7 | 42 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.19