2008 · Week 13 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
41
Model margin
+1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play-0.032
- 47.3%Success rate42.3%
- +0.129EPA / dropback+0.004
- +0.050EPA / rush-0.080
- 10.1%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.84CPOE-1.49
- 43.7%Third-down rate36.0%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.09Points / drive1.37
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/34 | 305 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 71 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/38 | 232 | 0 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58