Closing spread
DAL -11.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.018
- 37.8%Success rate41.9%
- -0.022EPA / dropback-0.021
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.015
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.2%
- -5.09CPOE+3.06
- 31.4%Third-down rate43.2%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
- 1.56Points / drive1.67
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 66 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 12:36 | 6 | 46 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 9:49 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| SEA | Q1 4:50 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| DAL | Q1 0:52 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| SEA | Q2 11:57 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 3–21 |
| DAL | Q2 9:30 | 5 | 36 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q2 7:34 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 3–24 |
| DAL | Q2 4:35 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| SEA | Q2 3:01 | 6 | 39 | Field goal | 6–24 |
| DAL | Q2 1:31 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 6–24 |
| SEA | Q2 0:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–24 |
| DAL | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–24 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 9–24 |
| DAL | Q3 9:37 | 3 | 33 | Turnover | 9–24 |
| SEA | Q3 8:07 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 9–24 |
| DAL | Q3 6:48 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 9–24 |
| SEA | Q3 4:54 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 9–24 |
| DAL | Q3 3:29 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 9–31 |
| SEA | Q3 2:19 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 9–31 |
| DAL | Q3 0:08 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 9–34 |
| SEA | Q4 8:54 | 3 | 29 | Turnover | 9–34 |
| DAL | Q4 7:51 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–34 |
| SEA | Q4 6:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 9–34 |
| DAL | Q4 4:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 9–34 |
| SEA | Q4 2:04 | 7 | 44 | End of half | 9–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 22/38 | 287 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/34 | 331 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tashard Choice | 11 | 57 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.45
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.84