2008 · Week 13

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

9·34

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 69°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -11.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCowboys
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.018
  • 37.8%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.022EPA / dropback-0.021
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.015
  • 7.7%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -5.09CPOE+3.06
  • 31.4%Third-down rate43.2%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate67.6%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.67
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 9–7 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 5-9-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13SEA @ DAL35–41DAL
2020 · W3DAL @ SEA31–38SEA
2018 · playoffsSEA @ DAL22–24DAL
2018 · W3DAL @ SEA13–24SEA
2017 · W16SEA @ DAL21–12SEA
2015 · W8SEA @ DAL13–12SEA
2014 · W6DAL @ SEA30–23DAL
2012 · W2DAL @ SEA7–27SEA

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck22/3828701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones11373.40
T.J. Duckett3206.70
Matt Hasselbeck2105.00
Maurice Morris6101.70

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3433131

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tashard Choice11575.20
Marion Barber10323.21
Tony Romo2147.00
Roy Williams11313.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.45
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.84