Closing spread
NO -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.120
- 43.0%Success rate48.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.99CPOE+2.69
- 43.3%Third-down rate49.2%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 2.04Points / drive2.42
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ATL–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:57 | 7 | 52 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 9:56 | 3 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 8:29 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 6:52 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q1 5:20 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 1:37 | 9 | 63 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 12:05 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 9:55 | 9 | 59 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| ATL | Q2 6:10 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| NO | Q2 2:13 | 8 | 73 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| ATL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–16 |
| NO | Q3 13:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–16 |
| ATL | Q3 12:21 | 15 | 94 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| NO | Q3 3:06 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 17–22 |
| ATL | Q4 12:55 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 25–22 |
| NO | Q4 7:51 | 5 | 16 | Touchdown | 25–29 |
| ATL | Q4 5:47 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 25–29 |
| NO | Q4 3:15 | 6 | 33 | End of half | 25–29 |
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/33 | 315 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/32 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52