Closing spread
NO -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
+4.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.120
- 43.0%Success rate48.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.99CPOE+2.69
- 43.3%Third-down rate49.2%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 2.04Points / drive2.42
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 24/33 | 315 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 18 | 61 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 18/32 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 16 | 102 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 10 | 80 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Deuce McAllister | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.1%
Expected total
47.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.52