Closing spread
IND -13.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play+0.114
- 38.0%Success rate48.1%
- -0.150EPA / dropback+0.230
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.087
- 5.1%Explosive rate6.4%
- -3.29CPOE+4.76
- 35.3%Third-down rate50.8%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate68.4%
- 0.93Points / drive2.14
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 49.1 points. IND are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 18/26 | 170 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Palmer | 4/6 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jordan Palmer | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| James Johnson | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/32 | 277 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
3.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.73