Closing spread
TEN -14
Total
36.5
Model margin
+9.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.155EPA / play-0.003
- 36.2%Success rate41.7%
- -0.205EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.086EPA / rush-0.044
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.0%
- -11.69CPOE-2.44
- 33.5%Third-down rate36.7%
- 29.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.05Points / drive1.83
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 11–7 since 1999
Meetings average 46.8 points. TEN are 8-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 22/43 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Lewis | 7 | 7 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Ken Dorsey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 14/23 | 155 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 136 | 7.2 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 24 | 99 | 4.1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
73.5%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.88
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+9.58