Closing spread
DEN -9
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.051EPA / play+0.101
- 42.2%Success rate49.2%
- -0.019EPA / dropback+0.157
- -0.107EPA / rush-0.007
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- -3.09CPOE+1.41
- 37.7%Third-down rate48.2%
- 60.9%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.48Points / drive2.01
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. DEN are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 17/32 | 187 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 32/40 | 286 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 8 | 58 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Tatum Bell | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
1.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
47.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.00