Closing spread
MIN -10.5
Total
45
Model margin
-6.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.162
- 40.9%Success rate36.3%
- +0.001EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.18CPOE-3.61
- 39.7%Third-down rate28.7%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.59Points / drive1.21
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. DET are 26-25-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 8:53 | 14 | 68 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIN | Q1 1:01 | 2 | 12 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DET | Q1 0:16 | 8 | 28 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| MIN | Q2 11:39 | 11 | 65 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DET | Q2 4:55 | 5 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q2 3:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| DET | Q2 2:52 | 6 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q2 0:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–6 |
| DET | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–6 |
| MIN | Q3 13:46 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| DET | Q3 10:50 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| MIN | Q3 8:45 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 10–13 |
| DET | Q3 6:48 | 8 | 17 | Punt | 10–13 |
| MIN | Q3 1:57 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| DET | Q4 11:22 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 17–16 |
| MIN | Q4 5:44 | 9 | 54 | Field goal | 20–16 |
| DET | Q4 0:22 | 2 | -11 | End of half | 20–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 8/10 | 105 | 1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 7/10 | 70 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 14/24 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 22 | 63 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
32.2%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.90
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-6.46