Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
41
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 59 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 11:47 | 3 | 2 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 10:07 | 3 | 12 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 8:43 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 6:27 | 15 | 84 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LV | Q2 12:58 | 5 | 38 | Turnover | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 9:51 | 3 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| LV | Q2 9:02 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q2 4:20 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LV | Q2 2:42 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q2 1:42 | 6 | 21 | Field goal | 6–27 |
| LV | Q2 0:23 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 7–27 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q3 9:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LV | Q3 8:26 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q3 6:56 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LV | Q3 3:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q3 1:26 | 7 | 20 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LV | Q4 13:40 | 5 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| LAC | Q4 12:09 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| LV | Q4 7:19 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 7–34 |
| LAC | Q4 5:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–34 |
| LV | Q4 3:18 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–34 |
| LV | Q4 2:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–34 |
| LAC | Q4 2:13 | 4 | 14 | End of half | 7–34 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.