Closing spread
NYG -6.5
Total
40.5
Model margin
+0.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.093
- 43.8%Success rate47.3%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.055EPA / rush+0.050
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.08CPOE+0.84
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.7%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.73Points / drive2.09
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PHI–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 10:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 9:12 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 7:42 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 4:31 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PHI | Q1 2:18 | 5 | 29 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 15:00 | 11 | 42 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 9:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| NYG | Q2 7:20 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| PHI | Q2 6:13 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| NYG | Q2 1:52 | 5 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| PHI | Q2 1:02 | 6 | 31 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 54 | Missed field goal | 10–7 |
| NYG | Q3 7:57 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 10–7 |
| PHI | Q3 4:39 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| NYG | Q4 13:38 | 9 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 17–7 |
| PHI | Q4 9:26 | 13 | 46 | Field goal | 20–7 |
| NYG | Q4 2:09 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| PHI | Q4 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 19/30 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 33 | 131 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Eckel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | -9 | -4.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 13/27 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 8 | 39 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
41.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.07
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.18