Closing spread
ARI -14
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:46 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:34 | 6 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 4:13 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| ARI | Q1 1:46 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 0:06 | 3 | 6 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 14:14 | 12 | 58 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 7:00 | 7 | 52 | Missed field goal | 7–17 |
| ARI | Q2 2:47 | 5 | 64 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| LA | Q2 0:59 | 1 | -5 | End of half | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 41 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| ARI | Q3 9:22 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LA | Q3 5:04 | 2 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| LA | Q3 4:12 | 8 | 50 | Turnover on downs | 7–27 |
| ARI | Q4 14:57 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–27 |
| LA | Q4 12:23 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 10–27 |
| ARI | Q4 10:21 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–27 |
| LA | Q4 7:06 | 9 | 77 | Opp touchdown | 10–34 |
| LA | Q4 3:11 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 10–34 |
| ARI | Q4 1:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 24/33 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.