Closing spread
ARI -14
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 24/33 | 279 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 12 | 32 | 2.7 | 1 |
| J.J. Arrington | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Edgerrin James | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.57%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.