2008 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jeff Garcia

23·38

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

38.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • -0.033EPA / play+0.066
  • 43.2%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.028EPA / dropback+0.073
  • -0.126EPA / rush+0.059
  • 7.5%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +1.84CPOE-1.27
  • 38.9%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 48.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.55Points / drive1.98
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–23 since 1999

Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB
2022 · W7TB @ CAR3–21CAR

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia24/3832120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn10494.90
Cadillac Williams9222.41
Jeff Garcia263.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme14/2017312

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams191869.82
Jonathan Stewart151157.72
Jake Delhomme2-2-1.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.2%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.02