2008 · Week 14 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.066
- 43.2%Success rate42.5%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.126EPA / rush+0.059
- 7.5%Explosive rate11.3%
- +1.84CPOE-1.27
- 38.9%Third-down rate40.0%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.55Points / drive1.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–24 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:04 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 8:50 | 14 | 62 | Missed field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 0:14 | 10 | 42 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 11:16 | 11 | 76 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| CAR | Q2 6:35 | 8 | 73 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:56 | 5 | 9 | End of half | 3–10 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 39 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| TB | Q3 12:09 | 2 | 49 | Touchdown | 10–10 |
| CAR | Q3 11:23 | 6 | 73 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| TB | Q3 8:19 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| CAR | Q3 3:37 | 10 | 68 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| TB | Q4 13:21 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 17–24 |
| CAR | Q4 10:54 | 4 | 90 | Touchdown | 17–31 |
| TB | Q4 8:30 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 17–31 |
| CAR | Q4 7:05 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–31 |
| TB | Q4 5:29 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 23–31 |
| CAR | Q4 2:29 | 3 | 42 | Touchdown | 23–38 |
| TB | Q4 2:07 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 23–38 |
| CAR | Q4 1:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 23–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 24/38 | 321 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Cadillac Williams | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 14/20 | 173 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 19 | 186 | 9.8 | 2 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 15 | 115 | 7.7 | 2 |
| Jake Delhomme | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.54
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.02