Closing spread
ARI -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
-1.1est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.052
- 40.9%Success rate45.0%
- +0.001EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.140
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- -2.18CPOE+5.02
- 39.7%Third-down rate43.3%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.59Points / drive2.12
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 10–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 12:04 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 11:05 | 4 | 29 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIN | Q1 9:30 | 6 | 52 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| ARI | Q1 6:39 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 14–0 |
| MIN | Q1 5:57 | 6 | 23 | Touchdown | 21–0 |
| ARI | Q1 2:43 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 21–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:29 | 4 | 43 | Turnover | 21–0 |
| ARI | Q2 14:48 | 11 | 46 | Punt | 21–0 |
| MIN | Q2 9:14 | 12 | 105 | Touchdown | 28–0 |
| ARI | Q2 2:08 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 28–0 |
| MIN | Q2 1:12 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 28–0 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 73 | Touchdown | 28–7 |
| MIN | Q3 13:43 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 28–7 |
| ARI | Q3 11:05 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 28–7 |
| MIN | Q3 9:37 | 10 | 49 | Opp touchdown | 28–14 |
| ARI | Q3 4:27 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 28–14 |
| MIN | Q3 4:27 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 35–14 |
| ARI | Q3 0:17 | 16 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 35–14 |
| MIN | Q4 7:43 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 35–14 |
| ARI | Q4 5:53 | 6 | 7 | Punt | 35–14 |
| MIN | Q4 4:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 35–14 |
| ARI | Q4 2:20 | 7 | 38 | End of half | 35–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 11/17 | 163 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 28 | 165 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 29/45 | 270 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 3/5 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Arrington | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.07