2008 · Week 15

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Tarvaris Jackson

35·14

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

University of Phoenix Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

-1.1est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.052
  • 40.9%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.001EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.140
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -2.18CPOE+5.02
  • 39.7%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.59Points / drive2.12
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 10–4 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 48.3 points. ARI are 5-7-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W13ARI @ MIN22–23MIN
2022 · W8ARI @ MIN26–34MIN
2021 · W2MIN @ ARI33–34ARI
2018 · W6ARI @ MIN17–27MIN
2016 · W11ARI @ MIN24–30MIN
2015 · W14MIN @ ARI20–23ARI
2012 · W7ARI @ MIN14–21MIN
2011 · W5ARI @ MIN10–34MIN

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson11/1716340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson281655.90
Chester Taylor10666.60
Jeff Dugan242.00
Tarvaris Jackson331.00
Bernard Berrian111.00

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner29/4527011
Matt Leinart3/52800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.J. Arrington22311.50
Tim Hightower5204.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.07