Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play-0.095
- 48.7%Success rate39.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.69CPOE-3.00
- 49.2%Third-down rate35.1%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.42Points / drive1.70
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/43 | 232 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/40 | 172 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.47