Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play-0.095
- 48.7%Success rate39.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +2.69CPOE-3.00
- 49.2%Third-down rate35.1%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.42Points / drive1.70
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. CHI are 7-9-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 14:48 | 10 | 38 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 11:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 9:27 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 7:51 | 7 | 36 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 4:13 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 1:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 14:47 | 9 | 37 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q2 10:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| NO | Q2 10:34 | 2 | 1 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| CHI | Q2 9:52 | 5 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 7:42 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CHI | Q2 5:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–14 |
| NO | Q2 4:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–14 |
| CHI | Q2 3:12 | 7 | 47 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| NO | Q2 0:49 | 3 | 18 | End of half | 7–21 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 62 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| CHI | Q3 8:31 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| NO | Q3 4:26 | 2 | 45 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| CHI | Q3 3:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 14–21 |
| NO | Q3 1:50 | 13 | 63 | Field goal | 17–21 |
| CHI | Q4 9:07 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 17–21 |
| NO | Q4 7:31 | 4 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 17–21 |
| CHI | Q4 5:29 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| NO | Q4 5:17 | 6 | 31 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| CHI | Q4 3:05 | 12 | 60 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| CHI | OT | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 24–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/43 | 232 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 22 | 87 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/40 | 172 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Clark | 3 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.47