Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
34
Model margin
+2.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.018
- 42.9%Success rate40.6%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.027
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.13CPOE-0.33
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.61
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/40 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 11/28 | 115 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70