Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
34
Model margin
+2.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.018
- 42.9%Success rate40.6%
- +0.022EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.027
- 7.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.13CPOE-0.33
- 41.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 54.8%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 1.61Points / drive1.61
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. BAL are 26-30-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 13:37 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 10:22 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 6:23 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 3:19 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 3:07 | 7 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q2 15:00 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| PIT | Q2 12:30 | 13 | 78 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| BAL | Q2 5:44 | 14 | 69 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q2 0:49 | 2 | -4 | End of half | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 13:53 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q3 11:24 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 9:12 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–6 |
| PIT | Q3 7:41 | 1 | 9 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| BAL | Q3 7:34 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–9 |
| PIT | Q3 6:02 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–9 |
| BAL | Q3 2:53 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–9 |
| PIT | Q3 1:00 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 3–9 |
| BAL | Q4 14:51 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–9 |
| PIT | Q4 13:18 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 6–9 |
| BAL | Q4 9:26 | 9 | 34 | Punt | 6–9 |
| PIT | Q4 3:36 | 11 | 92 | Touchdown | 13–9 |
| BAL | Q4 0:43 | 4 | 15 | Turnover | 13–9 |
| PIT | Q4 0:08 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 22/40 | 246 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gary Russell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 11/28 | 115 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.3%
Expected total
39.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.70