Closing spread
SD -6
Total
41
Model margin
+1.0est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:55 | 15 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 4:59 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 2:31 | 9 | 63 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:14 | 5 | 8 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 10:53 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 9:32 | 3 | 30 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 8:02 | 10 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 2:53 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–14 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LAC | Q3 13:27 | 3 | 4 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| KC | Q3 12:39 | 1 | 3 | Touchdown | 3–21 |
| LAC | Q3 12:35 | 10 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| KC | Q3 8:29 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 7:21 | 8 | 19 | Punt | 10–21 |
| KC | Q3 4:07 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q3 0:33 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–21 |
| KC | Q4 13:34 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q4 11:35 | 6 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 10–21 |
| KC | Q4 9:16 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 10–21 |
| LAC | Q4 4:55 | 15 | 89 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| KC | Q4 1:13 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 16–21 |
| LAC | Q4 1:11 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 22–21 |
| KC | Q4 0:36 | 2 | 17 | Missed field goal | 22–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Thigpen | 19/28 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
| Larry Johnson | 1/1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.24
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.