Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 10:11 | 6 | 26 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:10 | 2 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 6:39 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q1 3:02 | 5 | 41 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 0:14 | 19 | 107 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| SEA | Q2 6:41 | 4 | 4 | Turnover | 7–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:42 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 3:47 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 3:36 | 2 | 26 | Turnover | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 2:56 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q2 0:36 | 2 | 3 | End of half | 7–17 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| LA | Q3 9:53 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q3 7:21 | 7 | 45 | Field goal | 13–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:35 | 14 | 71 | Field goal | 13–20 |
| SEA | Q4 11:04 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–20 |
| LA | Q4 10:00 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 13–20 |
| SEA | Q4 7:56 | 11 | 90 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| LA | Q4 2:47 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 20–20 |
| SEA | Q4 2:10 | 5 | 60 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 15/25 | 226 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 15 | 86 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Julius Jones | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Seneca Wallace | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.40
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.