Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.084
- 43.6%Success rate46.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.59CPOE+4.74
- 37.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 1.64Points / drive1.69
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 30/46 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 12/19 | 156 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96