Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play+0.084
- 43.6%Success rate46.3%
- -0.002EPA / dropback+0.181
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.039
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.59CPOE+4.74
- 37.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 1.64Points / drive1.69
- 3.5%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–4 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. MIA are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:14 | 3 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 9:46 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q1 3:57 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:12 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 13:08 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 12:14 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 10:43 | 4 | 34 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 8:27 | 17 | 53 | Punt | 3–14 |
| MIA | Q2 0:36 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 3–14 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SF | Q3 10:15 | 16 | 62 | Field goal | 6–14 |
| MIA | Q3 2:46 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–14 |
| SF | Q3 1:05 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 9–14 |
| MIA | Q4 9:21 | 4 | 5 | Punt | 9–14 |
| SF | Q4 7:54 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 9–14 |
| MIA | Q4 5:29 | 8 | 49 | Missed field goal | 9–14 |
| SF | Q4 2:36 | 8 | 33 | Turnover on downs | 9–14 |
| MIA | Q4 1:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 9–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 30/46 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac Bruce | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 12/19 | 156 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.47
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.96