Closing spread
PK
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.173EPA / play-0.155
- 35.8%Success rate37.7%
- -0.181EPA / dropback-0.120
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.212
- 6.9%Explosive rate5.6%
- 34.6%Third-down rate33.2%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 0.97Points / drive1.10
- 3.7%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.054EPA / play allowed+0.068
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Feeley | 17/33 | 159 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Minor | 22 | 47 | 2.1 | 0 |
| A.J. Feeley | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Rattay | 23/38 | 181 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 13 | 46 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Kevan Barlow | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
41.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.58
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.98