Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.004
- 39.6%Success rate42.2%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.169EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- -5.73CPOE+4.52
- 34.6%Third-down rate37.0%
- 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 1.59Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 29/46 | 296 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DuJuan Harris | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 8 | 60 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 6 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Rod Streater | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Chris Harper | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 2 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/30 | 285 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 18 | 45 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 6 | 72 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 3 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 4 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Leonte Carroo | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| MarQueis Gray | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.88