2016 · Week 12

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

24·31

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

MIA -7

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.004
  • 39.6%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.092
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • -5.73CPOE+4.52
  • 34.6%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 72.1%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.80
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. MIA are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIA @ SF13–35SF
2024 · W16SF @ MIA17–29MIA
2022 · W13MIA @ SF17–33SF
2020 · W5MIA @ SF43–17MIA
2012 · W14MIA @ SF13–27SF
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA
2001 · W14MIA @ SF0–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIA
MIAQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
SFQ1 13:16862Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 9:46720Punt7–0
SFQ1 6:11727Punt7–0
MIAQ1 2:501191Touchdown7–7
SFQ2 12:22659Turnover7–7
MIAQ2 9:071294Touchdown7–14
SFQ2 2:17514Punt7–14
MIAQ2 0:472-6End of half7–14
SFQ3 15:0010Turnover7–14
MIAQ3 14:49420Field goal7–17
SFQ3 12:31991Touchdown14–17
MIAQ3 7:343-11Punt14–17
SFQ3 5:1949Punt14–17
MIAQ3 3:23560Touchdown14–24
SFQ3 1:333-2Punt14–24
MIAQ4 14:54667Touchdown14–31
SFQ4 11:31963Touchdown21–31
MIAQ4 7:4237Punt21–31
SFQ4 5:511477Field goal24–31
MIAQ4 2:1539Punt24–31
SFQ4 1:441175End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick29/4629631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Colin Kaepernick1011311.30
Carlos Hyde13655.00
DuJuan Harris2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vance McDonald48600
Shaun Draughn66490
Rod Streater45460
Chris Harper24320
Carlos Hyde56301
Torrey Smith37241
Jeremy Kerley24240
Garrett Celek23191
Quinton Patton11120
Blake Bell0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3028530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi18452.51
Ryan Tannehill6345.70
Kenyan Drake199.00
Damien Williams177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills36721
DeVante Parker36640
Dion Sims44531
Jarvis Landry47470
Leonte Carroo11151
MarQueis Gray22120
Damien Williams22110
Jay Ajayi12110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.4%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.88