Closing spread
SF -2
Total
44
Model margin
+3.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.040
- 46.0%Success rate44.3%
- +0.142EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.059EPA / rush-0.246
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +1.77CPOE+3.08
- 43.1%Third-down rate35.4%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.24Points / drive1.92
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. MIA are 3-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 26/40 | 313 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 8 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 7 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/34 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 17 | 120 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 3 | 7 | 29 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| River Cracraft | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.44