2024 · Week 16

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

17·29

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

SF -2

Total

44

Model margin

+3.4est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.040
  • 46.0%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.142EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.059EPA / rush-0.246
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +1.77CPOE+3.08
  • 43.1%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.92
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. MIA are 3-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIA @ SF13–35SF
2022 · W13MIA @ SF17–33SF
2020 · W5MIA @ SF43–17MIA
2016 · W12SF @ MIA24–31MIA
2012 · W14MIA @ SF13–27SF
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA
2001 · W14MIA @ SF0–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–MIA
SFQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:30512Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:34519Punt0–0
MIAQ1 7:30744Field goal0–3
SFQ1 3:301165Touchdown7–3
MIAQ2 14:141059Field goal7–6
SFQ2 9:4031Punt7–6
MIAQ2 7:53868Touchdown7–13
SFQ2 3:20867Field goal10–13
MIAQ2 0:47417End of half10–13
MIAQ3 15:00829Field goal10–16
SFQ3 10:571057Missed field goal10–16
MIAQ3 5:53855Field goal10–19
SFQ3 1:08960Touchdown17–19
MIAQ4 12:02615Punt17–19
SFQ4 9:31427Punt17–19
MIAQ4 6:37721Field goal17–22
SFQ4 2:10217Turnover17–22
MIAQ4 1:56362Touchdown17–29
SFQ4 1:36752Turnover on downs17–29
MIAQ4 0:1000End of half17–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy26/4031321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brock Purdy4266.50
Deebo Samuel Sr.5255.00
Patrick Taylor8243.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle891060
Deebo Samuel Sr.79961
Jauan Jennings46510
Ricky Pearsall44370
Eric Saubert1121
Patrick Taylor1510

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa22/3421510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane171207.11
Raheem Mostert8313.90
Jeff Wilson2126.00
Tua Tagovailoa2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
De'Von Achane67700
Jonnu Smith66620
Tyreek Hill37291
Malik Washington34280
Raheem Mostert22150
River Cracraft1360
Durham Smythe1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

1.99%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.98
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.44