2020 · Week 5

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

43·17

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -8.5

Total

50.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge map49ers
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.010
  • 46.8%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.106
  • 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +1.23CPOE-1.74
  • 38.5%Third-down rate39.6%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.03
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. SF are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIA @ SF13–35SF
2024 · W16SF @ MIA17–29MIA
2022 · W13MIA @ SF17–33SF
2016 · W12SF @ MIA24–31MIA
2012 · W14MIA @ SF13–27SF
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA
2001 · W14MIA @ SF0–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SF
SFQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:37770Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 10:45731Turnover on downs7–0
MIAQ1 7:33748Touchdown14–0
SFQ1 4:14628Punt14–0
MIAQ1 0:3938Punt14–0
SFQ2 13:25349Touchdown14–7
MIAQ2 12:07971Touchdown21–7
SFQ2 7:29627Punt21–7
MIAQ2 4:40571Field goal24–7
SFQ2 2:0030Turnover24–7
MIAQ2 1:4135Field goal27–7
SFQ2 0:3830Turnover27–7
MIAQ2 0:1428Field goal30–7
MIAQ3 15:00618Punt30–7
SFQ3 11:271154Touchdown30–14
MIAQ3 8:07775Touchdown37–14
SFQ3 4:421041Field goal37–17
MIAQ3 0:461050Field goal40–17
SFQ4 8:4048Turnover on downs40–17
MIAQ4 7:3232Field goal43–17
SFQ4 5:52816Turnover43–17
MIAQ4 4:09411End of half43–17

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick22/2835030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin16573.61
Matt Breida9283.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick3165.30
Lynn Bowden341.30
Jakeem Grant1-12-12.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Williams451061
Mike Gesicki56910
DeVante Parker23501
Myles Gaskin55340
Matt Breida11310
Isaiah Ford22230
Jakeem Grant1360
Adam Shaheen1131

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard9/189410
Jimmy Garoppolo7/177702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert11908.20
Jeff Wilson4276.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.133.00
Jerick McKinnon100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle48440
Brandon Aiyuk36440
Kendrick Bourne24301
Raheem Mostert33290
Deebo Samuel Sr.28190
Jerick McKinnon2450
Jeff Wilson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.53.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.17