Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.010
- 46.8%Success rate45.8%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.106
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.23CPOE-1.74
- 38.5%Third-down rate39.6%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 1.99Points / drive2.03
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 22/28 | 350 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | -12 | -12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Williams | 4 | 5 | 106 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 5 | 6 | 91 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 9/18 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 7/17 | 77 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 11 | 90 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 8 | 19 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.18
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.17