Closing spread
SF -13.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+18.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.242EPA / play+0.190
- 34.5%Success rate56.9%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.227
- -0.399EPA / rush+0.142
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -8.85CPOE+0.77
- 20.0%Third-down rate58.3%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.18Points / drive2.98
- 3.6%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
89.3%
Expected total
40.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+15.94
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+18.40