2026 · Week 2

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

13·35

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SF -12.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge map49ers
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.153
  • 39.8%Success rate52.5%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.265
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.001
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -6.93CPOE+4.63
  • 40.9%Third-down rate51.0%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate88.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.81
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. SF are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W16SF @ MIA17–29MIA
2022 · W13MIA @ SF17–33SF
2020 · W5MIA @ SF43–17MIA
2016 · W12SF @ MIA24–31MIA
2012 · W14MIA @ SF13–27SF
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA
2001 · W14MIA @ SF0–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SF
MIAQ1 15:00839Missed field goal0–0
SFQ1 10:281259Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 4:171768Field goal3–7
SFQ2 9:56866Touchdown3–14
MIAQ2 5:241358Field goal6–14
SFQ3 15:00465Touchdown6–21
MIAQ3 13:0833Punt6–21
SFQ3 10:49876Touchdown6–28
MIAQ3 5:46616Turnover on downs6–28
SFQ3 3:49228Touchdown6–35
MIAQ3 3:1033Punt6–35
SFQ3 1:251069Punt6–35
MIAQ4 10:18714Punt6–35
SFQ4 6:56410Punt6–35
MIAQ4 4:03383Touchdown13–35
SFQ4 2:30211End of half13–35

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis14/2319710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane20743.70
Jaylen Wright2115.50
Ollie Gordon II372.30
Malik Willis263.00
Malik Washington144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ryan Miller11771
Malik Washington45430
De'Von Achane36190
Caleb Douglas23190
DJ Herman13180
Greg Dulcich23170
Will Kacmarek1140
Chris Bell0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy20/2228720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brock Purdy33010.01
Kaelon Black7253.60
Christian McCaffrey10232.32
Jordan James4153.80
Deebo Samuel Sr.144.00
Mac Jones2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle44801
Mike Evans33540
Christian McCaffrey44430
Demarcus Robinson33340
Deebo Samuel Sr.34310
KhaDarel Hodge11180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.9%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.39