2012 · Week 14

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

13·27

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Candlestick Park · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -10.5

Total

38.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge map49ers
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.105
  • 42.9%Success rate47.9%
  • -0.007EPA / dropback+0.170
  • -0.107EPA / rush+0.029
  • 7.9%Explosive rate12.9%
  • -2.89CPOE+5.02
  • 37.7%Third-down rate35.1%
  • 58.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.92
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. SF are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIA @ SF13–35SF
2024 · W16SF @ MIA17–29MIA
2022 · W13MIA @ SF17–33SF
2020 · W5MIA @ SF43–17MIA
2016 · W12SF @ MIA24–31MIA
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA
2001 · W14MIA @ SF0–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SF
SFQ1 15:00424Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:17538Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:00520Punt0–0
MIAQ1 6:441262Field goal3–0
SFQ2 13:31953Field goal3–3
MIAQ2 8:00829Punt3–3
SFQ2 3:15861Field goal3–6
MIAQ3 15:0033Punt3–6
SFQ3 13:5330Punt3–6
SFQ3 12:0529Touchdown3–13
MIAQ3 11:17719Field goal6–13
SFQ3 6:531585Touchdown6–20
MIAQ4 14:271470Touchdown13–20
SFQ4 7:5538Punt13–20
MIAQ4 5:3587Turnover on downs13–20
SFQ4 4:10565Touchdown13–27
MIAQ4 2:104-1Turnover on downs13–27
SFQ4 1:2500End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill17/3315010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush14654.60
Ryan Tannehill3258.30
Daniel Thomas231.50
Lamar Miller310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess58500
Reggie Bush57380
Brian Hartline28340
Anthony Fasano2491
Rishard Matthews1280
Lamar Miller1180
Charles Clay1230
Marlon Moore0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick18/2318500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore12635.31
Colin Kaepernick6538.81
LaMichael James8303.80
Anthony Dixon294.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree911930
Randy Moss24300
Frank Gore22220
Delanie Walker11200
LaMichael James11150
Vernon Davis1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.45