Closing spread
SF -10.5
Total
38.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.049EPA / play+0.105
- 42.9%Success rate47.9%
- -0.007EPA / dropback+0.170
- -0.107EPA / rush+0.029
- 7.9%Explosive rate12.9%
- -2.89CPOE+5.02
- 37.7%Third-down rate35.1%
- 58.9%Red-zone TD rate54.7%
- 1.37Points / drive1.92
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/33 | 150 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 18/23 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 1 |
| LaMichael James | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 9 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Randy Moss | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| LaMichael James | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.5%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.45