Closing spread
SF -3.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.2est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.097
- 41.2%Success rate45.1%
- +0.068EPA / dropback+0.174
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 41.1%Third-down rate44.9%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
- 1.31Points / drive1.93
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.8%
- -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.061
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 16/28 | 149 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Fiedler | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 2 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Travis Minor | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dedric Ward | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jed Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 14/20 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 26 | 103 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Terry Jackson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | -8 | -2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Eric Johnson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.8%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.16