2001 · Week 14

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jay Fiedler

0·21

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jeff Garcia

3Com Park · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -3.5

Total

43

Model margin

+5.2est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge map49ers
  • -0.023EPA / play+0.097
  • 41.2%Success rate45.1%
  • +0.068EPA / dropback+0.174
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.001
  • 7.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 41.1%Third-down rate44.9%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate69.0%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.93
  • 3.4%Turnover rate1.8%
  • -0.050EPA / play allowed-0.061

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. SF are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIA @ SF13–35SF
2024 · W16SF @ MIA17–29MIA
2022 · W13MIA @ SF17–33SF
2020 · W5MIA @ SF43–17MIA
2016 · W12SF @ MIA24–31MIA
2012 · W14MIA @ SF13–27SF
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SF
SFQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:53311Turnover0–0
SFQ1 12:29749Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 8:463-1Punt0–7
SFQ1 7:001359Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 0:02630Punt0–14
SFQ2 11:121050Missed field goal0–14
MIAQ2 4:52615Turnover0–14
SFQ2 1:5440Turnover on downs0–14
MIAQ2 0:473-1Punt0–14
SFQ2 0:181-1End of half0–14
MIAQ3 15:00618Punt0–14
SFQ3 11:561798Touchdown0–21
MIAQ3 0:5136Punt0–21
SFQ4 14:44613Punt0–21
MIAQ4 10:59421Punt0–21
SFQ4 9:0234Punt0–21
MIAQ4 7:18842Turnover0–21
SFQ4 4:31614Punt0–21
MIAQ4 1:45733Turnover0–21
SFQ4 0:1900End of half0–21

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Fiedler16/2814903

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Fiedler4338.30
Lamar Smith9222.40
Travis Minor2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James McKnight24400
Chris Chambers27270
Travis Minor44270
Jeff Ogden23240
Dedric Ward22180
Oronde Gadsden35160
Jed Weaver0100
Lamar Smith11-30

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia14/2013310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Garrison Hearst261034.00
Kevan Barlow14392.82
Terry Jackson2178.50
Tim Rattay200.00
Jeff Garcia3-8-2.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens45430
Garrison Hearst33200
J.J. Stokes24200
Kevan Barlow11140
Terry Jackson11130
Eric Johnson13121
Tai Streets1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.8%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.16