Closing spread
SF -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.084
- 44.6%Success rate46.1%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.021
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.08CPOE-1.99
- 37.6%Third-down rate45.1%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.11Points / drive2.20
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 5–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42 points. SF are 4-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 18/33 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
| Skylar Thompson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 9 | 14 | 146 | 1 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 3 | 75 | 1 |
| River Cracraft | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Jeff Wilson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 25/37 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 2/4 | 56 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 17 | 66 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 8 | 51 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 8 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 6 | 10 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 5 | 9 | 46 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.4%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.41