2022 · Week 13

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

17·33

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge map49ers
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.6%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.021
  • 10.1%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.08CPOE-1.99
  • 37.6%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.20
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 5–4 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. SF are 5-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIA @ SF13–35SF
2024 · W16SF @ MIA17–29MIA
2020 · W5MIA @ SF43–17MIA
2016 · W12SF @ MIA24–31MIA
2012 · W14MIA @ SF13–27SF
2008 · W15SF @ MIA9–14MIA
2004 · W12MIA @ SF24–17MIA
2001 · W14MIA @ SF0–21SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–SF
MIAQ1 15:00175Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 14:50854Field goal7–3
MIAQ1 10:3734Punt7–3
SFQ1 9:301040Touchdown7–10
MIAQ1 4:5233Punt7–10
SFQ1 3:4959Punt7–10
MIAQ1 0:511165Field goal10–10
SFQ2 10:1435Punt10–10
MIAQ2 8:3930Punt10–10
SFQ2 8:14639Turnover10–10
MIAQ2 5:13410Punt10–10
SFQ2 2:481377Touchdown10–17
MIAQ2 0:0400End of half10–17
SFQ3 15:00613Punt10–17
MIAQ3 11:12319Turnover10–17
SFQ3 10:011139Field goal10–20
MIAQ3 2:5210Turnover10–20
SFQ3 2:4537Field goal10–23
MIAQ3 1:14480Touchdown17–23
SFQ4 14:28627Punt17–23
MIAQ4 11:101154Turnover on downs17–23
SFQ4 6:001044Field goal17–26
MIAQ4 2:031-2Opp touchdown17–33
MIAQ4 1:5310Turnover17–33
SFQ4 1:4200End of half17–33

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa18/3329522
Skylar Thompson0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert7304.30
Jeff Wilson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill9141461
Trent Sherfield13751
River Cracraft23290
Durham Smythe22210
Jaylen Waddle1590
Jeff Wilson0200
Mike Gesicki0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy25/3721021
Jimmy Garoppolo2/45600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey17663.90
Jordan Mason8516.40
Deebo Samuel Sr.451.30
Brock Purdy4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian McCaffrey810801
Deebo Samuel Sr.610580
Brandon Aiyuk59460
Jauan Jennings24340
George Kittle23220
Tyler Kroft11140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.4%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.41