2008 · Week 15 · Division
Final / OT
Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.066
- 43.2%Success rate43.0%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.021
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.9%
- +1.84CPOE+0.99
- 38.9%Third-down rate43.3%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate55.2%
- 1.55Points / drive2.04
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 26–25 since 1999
Meetings average 46.5 points. ATL are 21-28-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 12:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 10:30 | 6 | 31 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q1 6:50 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 0–3 |
| ATL | Q1 4:47 | 9 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| TB | Q1 1:01 | 5 | 38 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 13:35 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 12:07 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 10:22 | 4 | 46 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 8:26 | 6 | 43 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ATL | Q2 4:23 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| TB | Q2 1:15 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 12:56 | 7 | 62 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TB | Q3 9:05 | 4 | 29 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 7:09 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q3 4:51 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 1:35 | 7 | 47 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q4 12:41 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q4 9:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q4 8:15 | 8 | 32 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q4 3:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TB | Q4 2:29 | 5 | 12 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| ATL | Q4 0:44 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 10–10 |
| TB | OT | 7 | 17 | Punt | 10–10 |
| ATL | OT | 11 | 64 | Field goal | 10–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 26/37 | 269 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 15/23 | 206 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 32 | 152 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 4 | -7 | -1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+3.23
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.14