Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
45
Model margin
+1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.003EPA / play+0.037
- 41.7%Success rate45.3%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.044EPA / rush-0.012
- 9.0%Explosive rate9.6%
- -2.44CPOE+3.93
- 36.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.83Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 25–24 since 1999
HOU have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. HOU are 29-19-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| HOU | Q1 12:21 | 2 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 11:35 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:38 | 17 | 60 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 14:57 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| HOU | Q2 13:53 | 5 | 89 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 11:03 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 9:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 7:39 | 5 | 16 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 6:15 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 2:45 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| HOU | Q2 1:43 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 0:39 | 4 | 57 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| TEN | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 6–10 |
| TEN | Q3 13:28 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 9–10 |
| HOU | Q3 9:40 | 16 | 56 | Missed field goal | 9–10 |
| TEN | Q3 0:39 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 9–10 |
| HOU | Q4 14:32 | 7 | 30 | Field goal | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q4 11:45 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 9–13 |
| HOU | Q4 9:19 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–13 |
| TEN | Q4 8:16 | 5 | 50 | Field goal | 12–13 |
| HOU | Q4 5:23 | 4 | 45 | Punt | 12–13 |
| TEN | Q4 3:55 | 8 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 12–13 |
| HOU | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 48 | End of half | 12–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 15/33 | 181 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin McCareins | 3 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 23/39 | 284 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Cecil Sapp | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.75