Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
43
Model margin
+5.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.039
- 43.0%Success rate40.9%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.081
- 10.9%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.99CPOE-2.18
- 43.3%Third-down rate39.7%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 2.04Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.7 points. MIN are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 13/24 | 134 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 22/36 | 233 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 8 | 76 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.70