Closing spread
NYG -4
Total
38
Model margin
+2.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.093
- 42.5%Success rate47.3%
- +0.073EPA / dropback+0.129
- +0.059EPA / rush+0.050
- 11.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.27CPOE+0.84
- 40.0%Third-down rate43.7%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.98Points / drive2.09
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 46.4 points. NYG are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 61 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 9:34 | 7 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| NYG | Q1 6:16 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 13:38 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NYG | Q2 8:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q2 6:38 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q2 4:45 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 21–10 |
| CAR | Q2 2:06 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 21–10 |
| NYG | Q2 1:39 | 4 | 38 | Field goal | 21–13 |
| CAR | Q2 0:50 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 21–13 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NYG | Q3 12:42 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–13 |
| CAR | Q3 11:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 21–13 |
| NYG | Q3 9:35 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 21–20 |
| CAR | Q3 0:59 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 28–20 |
| NYG | Q4 12:50 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 28–20 |
| CAR | Q4 9:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–20 |
| NYG | Q4 7:09 | 8 | 45 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| CAR | Q4 3:21 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 28–28 |
| NYG | Q4 0:04 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 28–28 |
| NYG | OT | 3 | 6 | Punt | 28–28 |
| CAR | OT | 3 | 7 | Punt | 28–28 |
| NYG | OT | 6 | 87 | Touchdown | 28–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 11/19 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 24 | 108 | 4.5 | 4 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/27 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Ward | 15 | 215 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 24 | 87 | 3.6 | 3 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.19