Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
31
Model margin
-2.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play-0.155
- 38.0%Success rate36.2%
- -0.150EPA / dropback-0.205
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.086
- 5.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -3.29CPOE-11.69
- 35.3%Third-down rate33.5%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate29.2%
- 0.93Points / drive1.05
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5/9 | 55 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 38 | 171 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| James Johnson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Dorsey | 10/17 | 68 | 0 | 3 |
| Bruce Gradkowski | 2/5 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.6%
Expected total
40.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.96
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.88
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-2.43