Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
40
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.095
- 43.8%Success rate39.3%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.24CPOE-3.00
- 44.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.94Points / drive1.70
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 260 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 25 | 61 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 14/27 | 142 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 73 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.38