Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
40
Model margin
-0.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.095
- 43.8%Success rate39.3%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.083
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.111
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.24CPOE-3.00
- 44.1%Third-down rate35.1%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 1.94Points / drive1.70
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | GB–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 11:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:08 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 6:35 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 4:41 | 5 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 2:11 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q2 13:58 | 15 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| CHI | Q2 6:21 | 4 | 16 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 4:06 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q2 1:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–3 |
| GB | Q2 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 14–3 |
| CHI | Q3 13:03 | 5 | 27 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| GB | Q3 10:59 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 14–10 |
| CHI | Q3 7:19 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 14–10 |
| GB | Q3 6:12 | 6 | 47 | Missed field goal | 14–10 |
| CHI | Q3 3:31 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 14–10 |
| GB | Q3 1:57 | 8 | 20 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q4 12:58 | 9 | 36 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| GB | Q4 9:36 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 17–10 |
| CHI | Q4 7:14 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| GB | Q4 3:11 | 6 | 15 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| CHI | Q4 0:18 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–17 |
| CHI | OT | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/39 | 260 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 25 | 61 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Wynn | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 14/27 | 142 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 73 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.38