Closing spread
HOU -7
Total
43
Model margin
+2.5est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
4.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 10:34 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:59 | 7 | 51 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| HOU | Q1 3:42 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| LV | Q1 3:42 | 7 | 44 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| HOU | Q1 0:05 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–13 |
| LV | Q2 13:29 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 7–13 |
| HOU | Q2 11:04 | 12 | 46 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| LV | Q2 6:11 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q2 4:27 | 6 | 75 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q2 0:38 | 5 | 37 | End of half | 13–13 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 13–13 |
| LV | Q3 12:57 | 7 | 73 | Touchdown | 13–20 |
| HOU | Q3 9:56 | 6 | 19 | Opp touchdown | 13–27 |
| HOU | Q3 5:44 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 13–27 |
| LV | Q3 4:12 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 13–27 |
| HOU | Q3 0:01 | 11 | 73 | Field goal | 16–27 |
| LV | Q4 9:55 | 1 | -13 | Turnover | 16–27 |
| HOU | Q4 9:34 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 16–27 |
| LV | Q4 8:08 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 16–27 |
| HOU | Q4 4:23 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 16–27 |
| LV | Q4 4:15 | 7 | 24 | Turnover on downs | 16–27 |
| HOU | Q4 1:11 | 5 | 11 | End of half | 16–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 19/36 | 255 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 18 | 66 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.7%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.