Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play-0.004
- 48.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.013
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.032
- 6.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- +4.76CPOE+3.08
- 50.8%Third-down rate41.7%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 2.14Points / drive1.65
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–23 since 1999
JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | IND–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| IND | Q1 10:59 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 6:12 | 18 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| IND | Q2 11:37 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 8:39 | 5 | 37 | Punt | 7–14 |
| IND | Q2 6:17 | 9 | 83 | Missed field goal | 7–14 |
| JAX | Q2 1:03 | 7 | 54 | Field goal | 7–17 |
| IND | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–17 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 14–17 |
| JAX | Q3 10:26 | 14 | 60 | Touchdown | 14–24 |
| IND | Q3 2:28 | 11 | 81 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| JAX | Q4 12:31 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 21–24 |
| IND | Q4 11:23 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| JAX | Q4 6:28 | 3 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 31–24 |
| JAX | Q4 4:48 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 31–24 |
| IND | Q4 3:15 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 31–24 |
| JAX | Q4 2:34 | 10 | 74 | End of half | 31–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 29/34 | 364 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Rhodes | 14 | 27 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Chad Simpson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 28/41 | 329 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 20 | 91 | 4.5 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Chauncey Washington | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Montell Owens | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79