Closing spread
NO -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
-4.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.120EPA / play-0.162
- 48.7%Success rate36.3%
- +0.213EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- +2.69CPOE-3.61
- 49.2%Third-down rate28.7%
- 65.5%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 2.42Points / drive1.21
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/40 | 351 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 77 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Deuce McAllister | 9 | 61 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Orlovsky | 10/23 | 125 | 0 | 2 |
| Drew Stanton | 1/3 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 24 | 111 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Aveion Cason | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
38.1%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-4.13