2008 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 42°F · wind 17mph
Closing spread
PHI -4.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.032
- 43.8%Success rate42.3%
- +0.039EPA / dropback+0.004
- -0.055EPA / rush-0.080
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.5%
- -1.08CPOE-1.49
- 41.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 50.9%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 1.73Points / drive1.37
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/46 | 230 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 18/33 | 144 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 22 | 70 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jason Campbell | 2 | 28 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Rock Cartwright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
40.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.97
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-0.40